湖南师范大学自然科学学报

2020, v.43;No.183(04) 17-25

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中国能源消费碳排放动态变化及EKC实证检验分析
Dynamic Change of Carbon Emissions from Energy Consumption and EKC Empirical Test Analysis in China

钱萍;马彩虹;袁倩颖;
QIAN Ping;MA Cai-hong;YUAN Qian-ying;College of Resources and Environment, Ningxia University;Ningxia (China-Africa) Key Laboratory of Arid Land ResourceEvaluation and Environmental Regulation, Ningxia University;

摘要(Abstract):

基于IPCC方法,核算并分析中国省域能源消费碳排放的时空动态变化,采用EKC模型检验各省能源消费碳排放与经济增长之间的关系,并对曲线进行分析。结果表明:1995—2016年中国能源消费人均碳排放量由3.15 t·人~(-1)增至9.21 t·人~(-1),增长近3倍。人均碳排放和人均GDP存在明显地域分布和空间分类差异,北方表现为高—高、高—低型,呈显著正向增长,南方表现为低—高、低—低型,碳排放呈负增长。经济增长是碳排放增加的主要原因,能源强度和能源消费结构对碳排放增加起正向效应。中国碳排放与经济增长的EKC曲线呈倒U型并处于倒U型曲线上升阶段后期,自西北向东南EKC曲线呈倒U型曲线上升阶段—上升阶段后期—下降阶段。中国低碳减排任务应协调区域差异,制定符合实际的减排措施,实现经济绿色发展。
Based on the IPCC method and EKC model, this paper calculates temporal and spatial dynamics changes of carbon emissions from energy consumption in Chinese provinces, examines the relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth in these provinces and analyzes the EKC curves. Our results show that the per capita carbon emission of China's energy consumption increased about three times from 3.15 t to 9.21 t during 1995—2016. The per capita carbon emission and per capita GDP values exhibited clear differences in distribution and spatial classification. The north shows a high-high and high-low type with a significant positive growth, whereas the south displays a low-high and low-low trend with a negative growth in carbon emission. The economic growth is the main reason for the increase of carbon emissions. Energy intensity and energy consumption structure have a positive impact on the increase of carbon emissions. China's EKC curve of carbon emissions and economic growth likes an inverted U-shape with the late stage of the inverted U-shape rising. From northwest to southeast, the EKC curve is in the stage of inverted U-shaped curve rising-rising-declining. The reduction task to lower China's carbon emissions should incorporate regional differences and formulate practical emission reduction measures in order to achieve the green economic development.

关键词(KeyWords): 能源消费;碳排放;动态变化;EKC模型
energy consumption;carbon emissions;dynamic change;EKC model

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基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金资助项目(41761034);; 宁夏大学引进人才科研启动项目(BQD2016005)

作者(Author): 钱萍;马彩虹;袁倩颖;
QIAN Ping;MA Cai-hong;YUAN Qian-ying;College of Resources and Environment, Ningxia University;Ningxia (China-Africa) Key Laboratory of Arid Land ResourceEvaluation and Environmental Regulation, Ningxia University;

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